![]() The importance of a vice presidential candidate has to do more with what the selection says about the presidential candidate and their judgment. Joe Biden delivers a speech in front of reporters Wilmington, Delaware, on July 28. The Wall Street Journal in 2016 also analyzed years of election data and found that even when a vice presidential pick was viewed favorably by voters in their party, a majority of voters said the VP pick ultimately had no measurable impact on their vote for president. Kopko and Devine analyzed election and voter data going back more than 100 years and found vice presidential candidates usually only make a difference to the outcome of a general election when they are either very popular or very polarizing. “You have to make a lot of assumptions that someone’s going to feel so strongly about their home state that’s going to override any partisan predispositions.” “We’re pretty skeptical of the home-state advantage too,” Kopko told Vox in a recent interview. The data supporting the idea of a home-state advantage in a general election is very slim, according to two political science professors - Chris Devine of the University of Dayton and Kyle Kopko of Elizabethtown College - who have been studying it for years. There are others who come from safe Democratic states like California, and at least one - Rice - who has little firsthand political experience. There are candidates on Biden’s list who hail from Midwestern states, as well as candidates who come from key Sun Belt states like Georgia and Florida. There’s a prevailing idea that a vice presidential candidate can “deliver” their home state for the party. Do vice presidential picks actually matter politically? ![]() “The most important thing - and I’ve actually talked to Barack about this - the most important thing is that there has to be someone who, the day after they’re picked, is prepared to be president of the United States of America if something happened,” Biden said. He also has expertise and an intense interest in foreign policy, meaning he may be seeking a candidate with those credentials.Īs the oldest first-term president ever, if elected, Biden has also been clear he wants someone considerably younger and ready to assume the duties of the presidency should health problems or other unforeseen circumstances arise. ![]() A potential boon for the US senators on Biden’s list is that as a former longtime senator and Obama’s frequent deputy to Capitol Hill as vice president, Biden may be seeking someone with built-in relationships on the Hill. 2, Biden wants a vice president who is ideologically aligned with him and is someone he can work well with. There are a number of factors going into Biden’s important decision that go far beyond politics. How the coronavirus got Joe Biden to think much bigger The Post poll found Trump slightly behind Biden among white women - a group he won by 9 points in 2016.Īnd another recent poll conducted by Democratic strategist Karen Finney and veteran pollster Cornell Belcher suggests Biden picking a Black woman could boost his standing particularly with younger voters - a group lacking enthusiasm for the 77-year-old former vice president. More recent polls from the Washington Post, CBS, and Pew have found Trump still trailing Biden among women voters, albeit by narrower margins. A New York Times analysis of a slew of May and June polls found Biden 25 points ahead of President Donald Trump with women. Picking a woman running mate is already a smart political choice for months, Biden has opened up a vast lead with women voters. ![]() Kamala Harris and former National Security Adviser Susan Rice. There’s been increased pressure for Biden to pick a woman of color, and a number of his top candidates are Black women, like Sen. Biden’s team has been slowly narrowing a lengthy list of candidates. With a lengthy background interview process near completed, all that is left for the Biden campaign is for the critically important one-on-one interviews between Biden and his potential picks, although Biden said Tuesday he didn’t know whether those interviews would happen in person. “I’m going to have a choice in the first week in August,” Biden told reporters after a Tuesday speech. Editor’s note: On August 11, presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate.įormer Vice President Joe Biden is about a week away from announcing the name of the woman who will be his vice presidential pick. ![]()
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